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World Cup 2018 simulation model

Siemens Valued Contributor Siemens Valued Contributor
Siemens Valued Contributor

Ok guys, its one more day to go before it begins...

 

I've updated the previos model with the current set of teams and statistics. 

As previously, you can run a 1000 tournaments within seconds. This time I also shifted the focus from the supporters to the actual players.

 

Have fun!

 

screenshot.pngScreenshot from the modelAs before, there are no references or images of the actual event since they are trademarked, hence the name Soccer Cup. 

I attach a movie I used at a customer event, the model and an updated help file.

/johan

(view in My Videos)

11 REPLIES 11

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Siemens Valued Contributor Siemens Valued Contributor
Siemens Valued Contributor

I get an error message when trying to attach the model to the post:

The contents of the attachment doesn't match its file type.

 

What am I doing wrong?

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Siemens Valued Contributor Siemens Valued Contributor
Siemens Valued Contributor

Attaching the model as zip file until I find out what is wrong...

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Phenom
Phenom

@ what am I doing wrong ?

 

Nothing, since some weeks not every file extension ( eg. spp) is accepted for upload.

 

You have to zip it.

 

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Genius
Genius
Hello Jonord,

could you please upload the simulation as exe ? I'm using Plant Sim 13 and because of that I am not able to open your model.

Thanks in advance!

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Siemens Valued Contributor Siemens Valued Contributor
Siemens Valued Contributor

Hi NIROE,

 

Glad you enjoyed it!

I've added the zipped .exe file to the top post now. 

/johan

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Genius
Genius

Thanks!

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Genius
Genius

Hi Jonord,

Nice idea to do this.  I had an Excel model to do something along these lines for WC-2010.

I have downloaded your model to look at the correlation between raw betting odds and final results, as I used a non-stochastic model straight from the odds before.

This just came in on the wires - it's quite a curious state of affairs :-

Get your calculators out, because today's group matches could get complicated. In Group E , we're in the weird and wonderful scenario where a team who has not picked up a single point at the tournament still has a chance of qualifying while defending champions Germany could be consigned to an early exit. In Group F, Brazil are also on the brink of a similar fate.

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Siemens Valued Contributor Siemens Valued Contributor
Siemens Valued Contributor

Hi Old_Sohol,

 

I only use the odds as a very basic indicator on how good the teams are. It is not entirely true, since the betting odds already also consider the groups they play in and probably other factors, like popularity and how many bets there are etc. 

But anyway...

 

I re-ran the model with new odds just after Germany lost the first game and their odds went from 4 to 8 and it as a dramatic change. 

 

The odds of Germany beating South Korea however are probably good. A lot better than Sweden beating Mexico. 

Good luck!

/johan

Re: World Cup 2018 simulation model

Genius
Genius

Thanks - I will be interested to look at what you did.

Did you give any thought to using all the Monte Carlo run results to estimate confidence intervals for each probability of winning the competition?