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Lifetime prediction of existing offshore wind turbines


Dear all,


The offshore wind turbines are designed to operate for 20-25 years according to the current design standards. The current design standards and practices are nominally deterministic, which means that designing according to the design standards does not deal directly with uncertainties and probability distributions. To cover the uncertainties in the design, partial safety factors are applied. This may lead to conservative results as they are calibrated for general offshore applications. 


I have SCADA data of an existing wind turbine and I would like to determine the ''real'' fatigue. I have the next questions:


  1. Which methods can I use to determine the real fatigue for an existing structure?
  2. How can I determine the yearly probability of failure to say something about the life prediction?

I was thinking about a probabilitic approach with level I, level II and level III.


Any comment is welcome!